The shock of the last heating bill has barely been digested as the next heating season is just around the corner. And households will also face high heating costs in 2023, although probably not quite as high as last year. This is shown by the heating mirror of the non-profit portal CO2online, which traces the cost development for different types of heating.

CO2online, which cooperates with the German Tenants’ Association and is funded by the federal government, has evaluated more than 250,000 energy and heating cost bills across Germany. Accordingly, the costs for heating will have increased by up to 81 percent in 2022, depending on the energy source. This year they will probably be slightly lower again, but still well above the level that consumers were used to in 2021.

CO2online compares in detail the costs for an average household in a 70 square meter apartment in an apartment building. The most expensive heating in 2022 was with natural gas: the example household had to pay an average of 1,475 euros per year for it – that was 80 percent more than in 2021. But heating oil also became 48 percent more expensive, the consumption of the heat pump cost 50 percent more and the costs of the comparatively cheap wood pellets rose by 81 percent. Only the costs for district heating remained stable at an increase of 5 percent.

Consumers were lucky with the comparatively mild winter. This, like the federal government’s December emergency aid, ensured that the cost increase was at least slightly mitigated, writes CO2online.

For the current year, in which there are still a few autumn and winter months ahead, CO2online predicts a slightly lower heating bill than in 2022. According to the evaluation, heating with gas will be around 11 percent cheaper; the example household in the 70 square meter apartment will pay according to the forecast 1310 euros. According to the Heizspiegel forecast, heating oil will cost 1,130 euros for 2023 (minus 19 percent). For district heating, however, the model household has to pay ten percent more and ends up at 1,115 euros. Heating with a heat pump should cost 20 percent less and therefore only 1010 euros. Wood pellets are the cheapest at 870 euros (minus 17 percent).

The bottom line is that despite price caps and stock market prices falling again, consumers are still paying significantly more than before the start of the energy crisis. The individual costs for households naturally depend directly on consumption and the contractual agreements with the respective energy supplier. It is also possible that there will be another short-term price jump next winter, which is not foreseen in the CO2online forecast.

It will also be exciting to see what will happen to heating costs in 2024 when government subsidies expire. The price caps for electricity and gas, as well as the VAT reduction on gas, could be ended at the turn of the year. Whether they will continue until spring 2024 is being discussed politically. The expiry of the price brakes would make gas more expensive by around 8 percent and electricity by around 4 percent, Verivox recently calculated. In general, fossil energy sources will become more expensive in the future due to the politically set CO2 price.

Against this background, CO2online managing director Tanja Loitz advises both to carefully check the heating bill and to reduce heating consumption by changing behavior. “Most people misjudge their consumption and the influence of even the smallest measures on costs – or do not understand their heating bill. When energy prices are high, this is devastating,” says Loitz.