The profits from the home is moderated. The matter is not minor. Restless and worried in equal parts to thousands of investors that have allocated their savings, few or many, the purchase of a house for rent with the purpose to earn money with income. In recent years it has become the most profitable asset for any investor who wants to get the most out of your capital. What is at risk now the goose that lays the golden eggs?
The total return of the housing to be placed in the 8.5% in the third quarter of 2019. In the second quarter was 9.2% and in the first rondo 10.7%. But is that in 2018, ended in 10.6%, and in 2017 by 11.4%, according to the Bank of Spain. Sound the bells of stagnation. “The slowdown of the economy is taking a toll on the housing market, to which must be added the uncertainty generated by some regulatory changes,” said Miguel Cardoso, chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research.
To understand this sudden drop in profitability there is to know about their two components. The Bank of Spain not only takes into account the performance of the rental, but also the revaluation to 12 months of the property. It is the same —to put a simile— that happens with the shares of a listed company, where on one side is the return on the capital appreciation and, on the other, the dividends received by that action.
let’s Go to the first variable: what income to buy a flat to put it in the lease. In the third quarter of 2019, the gross return of the rental to a halt: it was 3.8%, compared to 4% in 2018, 4.2% in 2017 and 4.3% in 2016, according to the Bank of Spain. Has fallen from 4% for the first time since 2013 due to rising incomes have been deflating. It remains to be seen if they will do so even more after the announcement of the new Government regulate the price of the rent in neighborhoods where it is by the clouds.
The Bank of Spain is not the only institution that has put on the table the stagnation of the yields of the rent. “We have noticed that both the number of investors as the profitability has declined, especially in cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, while in cities medium-sized as Zaragoza, Valladolid and Seville have been raised by the sale price more economic, and the significant increase in revenue,” argues Lázaro Cubero, head of the department of Analysis of Tecnocasa.
“it Is logical that the rental prices, which have risen faster than those in sales, tend to decelerate and, therefore, there is margin compression of yields in the environment of 3.5% or 4% for this year,” says Juan Moreno, an analyst at Bankinter. Because, “the roof of the car is the ability to pay of the families, who were affected by the economic situation. At the beginning of the recovery in the areas of high demand, such as Madrid, Catalonia or the Balearic islands, could be to purchase houses at a price very reduced with respect to rents that were paid; but it is now quite complicated,” says Andrew Horcajada, ceo of Tectum Global Management (TGM). However, he adds, “we cannot conclude global trends clear, since there are multiple micromercados residential rental, even within the same municipality”.
No bonus or Stock exchange
despite the stagnation, the experts stress that it remains an investment more attractive and profitable than other alternatives under risk. “The tour in the climbs of the rental price is already limited, and it is logical that it is stabilized. However, we speak of a profitability of close to 4% who do not give many financial products,” points out Samuel’s Population, national director of Residential and Ground of the consulting firm CBRE. And both. State bonds to 10 years for rent, 0.43%, and the deposits of the households to more than a year of around 0.07%. The Spanish Stock exchange, which suffers a great deal of volatility, awarded in the third quarter of 2019 a negative returns of 1.5%, although it came from-4.4% the previous quarter.
at this point, was assailed by a doubt. How do I calculate the Bank of Spain, the performance of the lease if there is no official statistics of the rentals? It is estimated from the Survey on rental housing of households in Spain of 2006 of the Ministry of Development and the changes in the rentals CPI. Today, analysts say, is the best available information, there do not exist prices of rent officers in Spain. Although this will change. The royal decree-law 1 of march, of urgent measures in the field of housing and rent includes the creation of an official database with the bail bonds are deposited in the Institutes of the Housing of each autonomy. It will be ready in the first months of the year.
This explains that the data of profitability that offer real estate portals —handle only price bid—, is discordant with the Bank of Spain. According to Fotocasa, “although it does not reflect the amount of the closing of the transaction, we know that in these moments the price of the rent there is almost no negotiation, and in the case of the sale of around 10%. Ours are pretty close to reality, more reliable”. According to this portal, the gross return (calculated with the sale prices and rental index) continues to grow: December 1, 2019 was 6.6%, against 6.2% the previous year.
The other variable that takes into account the Bank of Spain for the calculation of the total return is the revaluation of the housing to 12 months. And in this sense, “the moderation of prices of sales in recent quarters is what explains that it has moderate profitability by price and therefore the total return of the home”, says the agency supervisor, using the data of the Housing Price Index (HPI) of the National Institute of Statistics.
So, for the moment, the hen will continue laying eggs. What of gold? “The demand for rental housing will continue to grow, especially due to the arrival of immigrant population”, bet Miguel Cardoso. The expert of BBVA believes that this year will continue the uncertainty and the contraction of the rental price, but that of face-to-2021 Spain live new markups and, consequently, increases the profitability. For his part, Mikel Echavarren, ceo of Colliers International, believes that the trend will be the “decrease of the profitability, but not by a slowdown in the growth of rents, but by increasing more rapidly the price of the rented dwellings, which will be increasingly liquid and appreciated by investors, especially in locations shielded to the intervention of the Government, as in Madrid”. And he adds: “Within two or three years you will begin to be terminated thousands of homes designed in this way that should have payoffs gross of around 5% and 6%”.
