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Rarely have the professionals’ forecasts differed so greatly as before the turn of the year 2023/2024: While skeptics assume that the stock market indices will be at around the current level at the end of next year, optimists believe that the Dax alone will increase to around There are 19,000 points in it. That would be almost 3,000 points more than now, an increase of almost 20 percent. That would be enormous, given the increase of almost 20 percent that the German leading index has already achieved this year. But based on the experience of the last few years, we also have to say: Everything could turn out completely differently.
The fund managers certainly see risks and possible triggers for major crises on the financial market on the horizon. One of the things she is most concerned about is the situation on the commercial real estate market, as well as the real estate market in China. In addition, the geopolitical situation is still tense – the current conflicts could worsen further in three regions in particular: Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan.
In addition, the threat of a possible global recession is still not off the table, even if it appears increasingly unlikely. So far, the major economies have shown themselves to be quite resistant, especially the USA. But there is no guarantee that this will remain the case and that the economic “landing” that usually follows sharp interest rate hikes will not occur at all. It would be at least historically remarkable if there was no collapse. So we can definitely look forward to 2024. And yet investors can already prepare for a few things and make their portfolio more future-proof:
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