Temperatures of over 30 degrees, lots of sun and hardly any rain: the weather is currently showing its midsummer side. However, certain forecasts give cause for concern for the coming days. An overview of the risk of forest fires and the ongoing drought.
High forest fire risk
The forest fire risk index of the German Weather Service (DWD) has been showing alarming red to dark red spots on the map of Germany for days. The danger is particularly great in the northeast, where the highest warning level five applies in many places. There are also dark red spots in Lower Saxony, Hesse, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bavaria. In all federal states, there is at least danger level four or three in many places.
Where it burns?
The number of larger forest fires in Germany is currently still manageable. There has been a fire on a former military training area in Jüterbog south of Berlin since May 31. Wind keeps fanning the fire in the more than 700 hectare munitions-loaded fire area. There has also been a fire in a forest and moor area south of Rostock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for a few days, according to the Rostock district, 80 hectares were affected at times.
Persistent dryness
According to DWD information, the high risk of forest fires has been favored by the persistent drought for several weeks. It alone doesn’t start a fire. However, combined with high temperatures, wind and low humidity, it can increase the risk of forest fires.
The top layers of the soil are bone dry in many places, says DWD agricultural meteorologist Andreas Brömser. This applies to large parts of the north and east, but also partly to northern Baden-Württemberg, parts of Saarland, Franconia and the Upper Palatinate. At some stations, the upper soil layers are as dry as usual in August.
And that will probably remain so for the time being. According to the DWD, there is no foreseeable area-wide, persistent rain, which is needed so that the soil is permanently soaked. A high amount of precipitation accumulates during short periods of heavy rain. However, dried-out soils often cannot absorb them quickly enough.
climate change
The effects of the ongoing drought have become more likely due to climate change, says Kirsten Thonicke from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Germany has been struggling with very dry periods for several years. “Despite the plentiful rainfall at the end of this winter, we still lack a year’s worth of rainfall to make up for the deficit of recent years,” explains the scientist.
concern for health
The high level of smoke produced by forest fires can have health consequences. Toxic gases and harmful soot are produced during combustion, says Torsten Bauer from the German Society for Pneumology and Respiratory Medicine. “If you just smell the fire, it’s not dangerous to your health.” According to the pulmonologist, it becomes risky from the point at which smoke and fire can also be seen.
For people with lung or respiratory diseases, such as asthmatics, the gaseous pollutants could cause the airways to become pathologically narrow. Soot could also cause massive damage to the lungs. The windows should therefore remain closed in the event of a nearby forest fire.
Grilling, smoking, campfire – the danger man
According to experts, most forest fires are caused by careless behavior. “Campfires, barbecues or carelessly thrown away cigarette butts pose a high risk,” says Torge Brüning, fire protection engineer at RV Versicherung. Strict rules apply in Germany to protect the forests. Open fire is strictly prohibited in the forest and in nature reserves – not only when there is a risk of forest fires. In addition to campfires and grills, this also includes camping stoves.
There is also an absolute ban on smoking in forests nationwide from March to October. In some federal states, forests are even smoke-free zones all year round, according to Brüning in Berlin, Brandenburg, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Anyone who does not comply with the requirements commits an administrative offense and must expect high fines.
consequences for agriculture
The persistent drought is also having an impact on agriculture. It means stress for plants that do not have deep roots or have only recently been planted, such as sugar beet, says DWD agricultural meteorologist Brömser. The deeper soil layers below 60 centimeters are still well moistened thanks to the heavy rain in spring, so that deeper-rooted plants are currently well supplied, such as vines or fruit trees.
In order to protect groundwater, farmers in some federal states are asked to pay if they take water for agriculture or forestry, for example in Saxony-Anhalt, Lower Saxony and Saarland. This measure is being considered in other federal states.
As expected, the farmers’ association thinks little of this. “With additional fees, food prices would rise even further,” says Johann Meierhöfer, head of the department for arable farming at the German Farmers’ Association. It is more important to keep water in the landscape, for example with reservoirs. Farmers also need new, more resilient plant varieties. “Politicians should listen to science and address the issue,” he says.
