Relax by the pool, sip a cocktail and maybe read that book you’ve been wanting to read for so long. We all have a rough idea of what our summer vacation should be like. However, the last few weeks have made it painfully clear to us that reality sometimes looks different: forest fires in numerous holiday destinations, severe storms in Italy and a heat wave in the Mediterranean that is driving even heat-tested summer holidaymakers into the shade.
The summer vacation that many people have longed for after the coronavirus pandemic is not available in many parts of the world this year. Instead, we have to observe that the climate crisis is making its way more and more into our everyday lives – it doesn’t even seem to stop at our well-deserved vacation. Are the days of carefree summer trips over?
There is no simple, universal answer to this question, as it depends on many factors. What is certain is that the general conditions for our summer vacation are changing. What we are currently observing in the Mediterranean and in many other parts of the world is a trend that will continue in the coming years. The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came to this conclusion.
It describes the Mediterranean as a “climate change hotspot”. Accordingly, the temperature there, especially on the coast, will rise more sharply in the next 50 years than in other regions, which will lead to more and more extreme weather events. Storms, heat waves and forest fires are becoming more and more the norm, especially in the summer months – our peak travel season. Especially when we long for summer, sun and beach, it gets extra uncomfortable on the Mediterranean.
A painful realization, because for decades the Mediterranean has been the absolute leader when it comes to the most popular holiday region for Germans. Year after year, Italy, Spain and Greece land on the podium of corresponding rankings and record horrendous visitor numbers. However, if the prediction of the world climate report is confirmed, this could change, at least in the distant future.
Many experts also expect a shift in travel destinations in summer. Accordingly, the experts expect a shift in tourist flows to the north. Instead of Mallorca or Sicily, Lofoten or Scotland would then be on the bucket list for summer vacations. And a trend in this direction is actually already discernible, as a current analysis by the European Travel Commission shows.
According to this, the number of tourists traveling to the Mediterranean in midsummer fell by 10 percent compared to the previous year, while destinations such as the Czech Republic, Ireland and Denmark recorded an increase. “Instead of sun, beach and sea, it might be a bathing lake in a low mountain range,” says tourism researcher Prof. Dr. Harald Zeiss in an interview with “Welt” on this.
If you really want to go to the Mediterranean, you should make friends with the low season in the long term – so maybe plan a beach holiday in spring or autumn. In any case, he is certain: “The rising temperatures will affect tourism and travel habits in the medium term.”
However, that’s what we thought of the coronavirus pandemic as well. And yet our travel behavior has almost returned to the pre-corona level. According to tourism researcher Jürgen Schmude from the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, we should therefore not draw hasty conclusions from current events regarding our travel behavior. Because when it comes to vacation, we quickly forget how he explains in an interview with the star: “For the “best weeks” of the year, we are ready to hide a lot: fundamental crises and challenges such as the refugee crisis, the Ukraine war or climate change.” You then act according to the motto: “We deserve a carefree vacation, so let’s take a carefree vacation.”
According to Schmude, even the forest fires and the enormous heat in the Mediterranean this year will not necessarily mean that we will avoid the holiday region in the future. Anyone who likes to travel south in summer will continue to do so for the time being – as long as there is no warning from the Federal Foreign Office. And if they do, then one Mediterranean country is usually exchanged for another. So Spain instead of Greece or vice versa.
“In the long term, tourist behavior depends on whether the events occur repeatedly and how massive the ‘images’ are.” If next summer there are no more frightening scenes like the forest fires on Rhodes, then there is a high probability that we will continue as before. However, it is very likely that the heat will still cause problems for the countries on the Mediterranean next year.
Tourism researcher Zeiss is therefore also appealing to tour operators and destinations to develop attractive offers for the off-season in order to divert the flow of tourists. This would not only be more relaxed for holidaymakers in the long term given the rising temperatures, but would also minimize the consequences of mass tourism and protect the environment. However, other work structures would be necessary for this, since many holiday resorts on the Mediterranean only go on emergency flames in the off-season, and many restaurants and hotels are closed.
And even if this were implemented on a large scale, another problem would remain: the summer holidays. Families with school-age children in particular are dependent on the holiday season when planning their holidays; longer holidays are often only possible during the summer holidays. In an interview with the “Bild” newspaper, the FDP politician Nico Tippelt therefore advocated making the holiday season more flexible. Apart from the concrete feasibility of the idea, it could have two positive effects: the equalization of mass tourism and the resulting reduction in prices.
Mass tourism is not only a problem for residents of tourist hotspots and the local environment, but also for every tourist should extreme weather events occur. Heat accumulates mainly in cities or in places where there are many people. Ergo, rising temperatures are easier to endure where you are not squeezing onto a beach with hundreds of other bathing holidaymakers.
The problem is: mass tourism is difficult to get rid of. If we’re being honest, we all want a piece of the pie called the world. We all want to see that one beach, walk down that famous staircase and eat at that restaurant everyone raves about. It’s in our nature – and yet it doesn’t help us or anyone else. Tourism researcher Jürgen Schmude is therefore calling for a rethink: “Here, suppliers are again challenged equally by consumers.”
It is essentially about distributing the tourists in the area. The coronavirus pandemic has shown that less well-known travel destinations can also be attractive. “However, after the pandemic, suppliers and buyers have fallen back into the old patterns of behavior,” Schmude told Stern. The result: mass tourism in popular travel destinations. But he also has a solution ready: “As a holidaymaker, I can look for destinations away from the “Lemming strongholds”.
The future of our carefree summer vacation depends on many factors, not all of which we have in our hands. No one can say with certainty how climate change will affect the weather in the Mediterranean. All we know is that the climate will change in the long term. And with it the conditions under which we travel. If we manage to choose our travel destinations more consciously and maybe make the off-season the high season for the Mediterranean, then we could avoid the heat for a while if we wanted to – at least on vacation.
Forgoing travel because there are fires in some parts of the world, people are waging wars or other crises determine everyday life, travel researcher Schmude thinks that is a bad idea. For him, one thing is certain: traveling has many positive aspects. “For the traveler, traveling usually also means relaxation and new impressions. In the destination areas, tourism generates jobs and can even contribute to the preservation of nature and the landscape.” Of course, it is important that destinations and means of transport, length of stay and behavior on site as well as travel frequency are within a healthy range. Schmude’s conclusion: “There’s nothing wrong with traveling, but we have to do it with ‘brain’.”
A little tip for those who still want to go on vacation this year: Before booking, it’s worth taking a look at the world map from the US space agency NASA. It gives an overview of where there is currently a global fire.
Sources: Welt, Bild-Zeitung, Professor Jürgen Schmude, University of Munich, IPCC report, European Travel Commission, climate study
