Andrew Cuomo is the top pick for about 40% of likely voters in the upcoming ranked-choice Democratic primary, making him the clear frontrunner in the race, according to a recent Marist Poll released on a Wednesday night. The poll also revealed that many of Cuomo’s supporters don’t really have a backup plan. According to pollster Lee Miringoff, the most popular second choice among Cuomo backers was actually nobody. It seems like they’re all in on Cuomo and no one else. The poll showed that a significant portion of Cuomo supporters ranked him first and then just left the rest of their ballot blank, leaving the other spots empty. Voters have the option to rank up to five candidates on their ballots.
Cuomo managed to secure 37% of the Democratic vote in a sample that included undecided voters leaning towards a candidate. In another sample that excluded undecided voters and simulated six rounds of ranked-choice voting, Cuomo started with 44% as the top choice and gradually increased his lead to win with 53% by the fifth round. Queens Assemblyman and socialist Zohran Mamdani came in second place with 29%, while Comptroller Brad Lander finished third with 18%. Council Speaker Adrienne Adams found herself in fourth place, getting eliminated after the fourth round with 13% of the vote. Former Comptroller Scott Stringer ended up in fifth place with just 6% of the vote. Interestingly, while most Cuomo supporters only ranked Cuomo, Stringer was the next popular choice for them, followed by Adrienne Adams. State Senator Zellnor Myrie was eliminated after the second round with only 4% of the vote. Other candidates like Jessica Ramos, Whitney Tilson, and Michael Blake were out in the first round with 2% or less of the vote. It remains unclear what percentage of voters may have followed the anti-Cuomo strategy known as “DREAM,” which stands for “Don’t Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor.”
In summary, Andrew Cuomo seems to have a strong hold on a significant portion of likely Democratic voters in the upcoming ranked-choice primary. Despite some supporters not having a backup choice if Cuomo doesn’t make the cut, he continues to lead the race according to the Marist Poll. The simulated rounds of ranked-choice voting showed Cuomo gradually increasing his lead to ultimately win with 53% of the vote by the fifth round. Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander also emerged as significant contenders in the race, with Mamdani finishing in second place and Lander in third. The dynamics of the race are interesting, with Stringer being the popular second choice among Cuomo supporters. It will be fascinating to see how the rest of the campaign unfolds leading up to the primary. Who will emerge as the final contenders, and will Cuomo be able to maintain his lead until the end? Only time will tell in this exciting and unpredictable race.
