With the awakening of spring, the mood to buy in Germany is also increasing: the consumer climate in Germany recovered noticeably in April, according to the Nuremberg-based consumer research company GfK as the result of its latest study. For May, GfK is forecasting a consumer climate of minus 25.7 points, 3.6 points better than in April. Before the corona pandemic, the consumer climate was relatively constant at around plus 10 points.
GfK forecast that private consumption will again be rather weak in a long-term comparison this year and will not be able to make any contribution to the overall economic development in Germany.
Although consumer sentiment is still well below the level before the pandemic, consumption has picked up speed again, according to the Nuremberg consumer researchers. The main driver was people’s expectations with regard to their income.
Income expectations rise for the seventh time in a row
GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl said that income expectations had risen for the seventh time in a row and had returned to the pre-Ukraine war level. The background is the more moderate energy prices. People assumed they would have more money in their pockets again. In this pull, the propensity to buy – that is, the willingness to make larger expenditures – is also increasing again. Expectations regarding the economy have also risen – although economic researchers have so far not predicted an easy year for 2023.
However, the various political programs also had an impact. The cushioning of energy prices and the expected increases in income based on collective agreements meant that the loss of purchasing power originally feared as a result of inflation turned out to be milder than initially assumed.
GfK surveys 2,000 people in Germany every month for the consumption study. The results are an excerpt from the “Maxx Consumer Climate” study, which is being carried out on behalf of the EU Commission.
