When elementary school teacher Esra Yavuz casts her vote for the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey these days, it is in the hope of a change in policy. “I’m voting for the people who live there and also for me – Turkey is my country,” says the 41-year-old from Berlin. The German-Turkish woman is one of around 1.5 million people who are eligible to vote nationwide from Thursday on whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should be voted out of office or re-elected.
At the dinner table of the Yavuz family in Berlin’s Westend district, there is a lively discussion about the election, which is considered the greatest challenge in Erdogan’s political career. Not only since the earthquake disaster in February has he had to fear for his re-election. “People were shaken awake by the earthquake and felt the pain firsthand and saw how important a functioning state is,” says Esra Yavuz. Part of her family comes from the badly damaged city of Antakya, where many residents had complained about the slow pace of aid.
Close outcome of the elections expected
Current polls point to a close race between Erdogan and his strongest challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the main opposition party CHP. Erdogan’s performance among the German-Turks will be all the more exciting. The Turkish-born journalist Hüseyin Topel sees a “tangible chance” for the opposition in North Rhine-Westphalia this time – and warns of election rigging. The journalist from Hilden near Düsseldorf believes that a record turnout in Germany is quite possible. “Through this kind of participation, the Turks in Germany feel that they have value and that they belong. They don’t want to be second-class Turks.” And he warns: “Extreme caution is required. The ballot boxes abroad in particular must be meticulously guarded by cross-party supporters of the opposition.”
If you take past votes as an example, the AKP can hope for success, at least with voters in Germany. In 2018, Erdogan came to 64.8 percent in this country – and only 52.6 percent overall. “The religious-conservative milieus are disproportionately represented in Germany and well organized, which makes it easier to mobilize them,” says Yunus Ulusoy from the Center for Turkish Studies in Essen. Among other things, this has to do with the labor migration since the 1960s, which has mainly taken place from the rural Anatolian heartland – not from metropolises and coastal regions such as Istanbul, Ankara or Izmir, where secular and oppositional milieus are strong.
Is the popularity of Erdogan decreasing?
In recent years, however, many students, professionals and members of the opposition have immigrated – and that could change the composition of the electorate in favor of the opposition. “Nevertheless, that should only slightly change the popularity of President Erdogan in Germany,” believes Yunus Ulusoy. AKP voters are overrepresented in the mosques.
Giving the AKP the vote, Esra Yavuz cannot understand that. “You can see all the misfortune in Turkey, but you live in a democratic country. You have everything here, but vote for a quasi-non-democratic party in your country.” Her husband Cagdas also believes that this time it can be dangerous for Erdogan. But: It was not the first “fateful election” in Turkey – and the outcome was mostly a disappointment for many people, despite initially high hopes. “My father has had this hope for the last 50 years. I don’t think he will ever see Turkey develop the way he always wanted.”
Outside of Turkey, Germany has the world’s largest Turkish community – with around three million people. Among the federal states, most people of Turkish origin live in NRW, where a good 500,000 people are now entitled to vote. Campaign appearances by foreign politicians are not permitted three months before the vote in Germany. But something else applies to private rooms. “One should pay more attention to the smaller social spaces in the vicinity of the mosque communities, since the people for election propaganda often meet in private,” advises Topel. In this context, politicians from Turkey kept popping up.
Make mood on social media
The Ditib in Cologne, as the largest Islam association, could try to exert “propagandistic” influence in favor of Erdogan and AKP, but Topel believes that will probably not play a major role. On the other hand, there is a lot of support for the AKP via Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Twitter. And in Germany, a lot of linear Turkish TV is watched. Much of the media in Turkey is under the direct or indirect control of the government.
The Turkish Federation in North Rhine-Westphalia also expects a very high turnout in this country. In view of media “overload” and the resulting polarization, it is a “question of conscience” to go to the polls and mobilize as many people as possible for your own camp, observes Chairman Serhat Ulusoy.
Entrepreneur Mehmet D. from the Lower Rhine would have preferred to postpone the elections because of the earthquake. Erdogan promised to rebuild the destroyed houses within a year – he thinks the vote should have been delayed to see whether the promise would be implemented. Progress in reconstruction is shown again and again on Turkish television, and the victims are given a lot of help after initial problems. This is also noticed by the Turkish community in Germany. “Of course, Erdogan gets plus points with that.”
