Central America, Afghanistan and Papua New Guinea are hardest hit by extreme heat. This is the conclusion reached by a research team led by climate scientist Vikki Thompson from the University of Bristol. According to the study, extreme events that previously only occurred once every 100 years are now likely to occur in these countries every 78 to 90 years. The temperature records there range from 32.5 degrees in Papua New Guinea to almost 38 degrees in Afghanistan.
Weather extremes such as heat records are likely to become more frequent in the future as a result of climate change. In their study, the climate researchers looked at what heat records mean for different regions of the world. To do this, the scientists evaluated data sets from observation data and climate models and used methods of extreme weather statistics. In addition, data on health care and population growth were included in the calculations. According to the study, how vulnerable a region is depends, among other things, on socio-economic factors.
The frequency of extreme events also plays a role. Countries that have not experienced any extreme events so far have not felt the need to adapt to climate change and prepare for further extremes. Should such an event occur, these countries will be particularly affected, the researchers argue. At the same time, emerging and developing countries are experiencing large population growth, which in extreme cases could overload the healthcare system and energy supply.
According to the authors of the study, China and Europe are also among the regions that would particularly feel the effects of extreme heat. According to the experts, this is due to the high population density. However, compared to emerging and developing countries, Europe has a decisive advantage: Even if extreme weather events are still relatively rare, the people in this region are better informed about the consequences of climate change. Therefore, the first adaptation measures and plans have already been developed.
But the same applies here: “Regions and countries are often only prepared for extreme events that they have already experienced before,” according to the study published in the journal “Nature Communications”. Example France: In 2022 violent fires raged in several parts of the country. Thousands of hectares of forest were destroyed. A good six months later, the French government introduces a forest weather report that assesses the risk of fire. From the beginning of June until at least the end of September, the weather service Météo France will publish daily maps showing the fire risk in the individual departments for the next two days.
Europe is warming up faster than almost any other continent. Heat extremes, droughts and forest fires are very likely to occur more frequently here in the future. A document from the EU Commission has been circulating for several years, in which adaptation measures are laid down. There is little concrete information in the 30-page paper.
In Germany, the so-called “Adaptation Action Plan” has existed for 15 years. A third version of the paper states that the Federal Republic is doing too little to combat the dangers of climate change. The authors of the report conclude that three quarters of a total of 147 measures have been implemented or are currently being implemented. “More active participation is needed” to carry out the measures.
The researchers of the “Heat” study also advocate reviewing and expanding existing heat action plans. “Heat waves can be deadly, but preparation can save lives,” the scientists write. Every country should prepare for extreme weather events, regardless of past experiences with climate change.
According to the analysis, extreme events classified as unlikely can occur anywhere. So far, however, it has not been possible to make an exact forecast because the data is not yet sufficient, say the researchers. However, their study shows that between 1959 and 2021, unexpected heat waves occurred in a third of the regions surveyed.
