Whether it comes to a wage agreement with Deutsche Bahn or an open-ended strike is now entirely up to the members of the railway and transport union (EVG). Around 110,000 of them are called upon to vote in a ballot on whether to accept or reject a compromise proposal from the arbitrators. The arbitration had become necessary after collective bargaining failed at the end of June. On Friday, the EVG federal board recommended that the members agree to the agreement proposal.

The recommendation of the federal board

The panel’s recommendation to accept the arbitration award came after several hours and heated discussions on Friday evening. “The discussion was very serious, very intense and very responsible,” said EVG boss Martin Burkert on Friday evening. “This recommendation for the arbitration decision has its ups and downs, and it was difficult for us to reach this compromise. But in the end there was a clear vote in favor of the arbitration commission’s recommendation.”

That is what the arbitrator says

The arbitration team, labor lawyer Heide Pfarr (SPD) and former interior and defense minister Thomas de Maizière, proposed on Wednesday a pay increase of EUR 410 per month in two stages over a period of 25 months. The first stage of 200 euros is due in December, the second in August of the coming year. In addition, all employees are to receive a tax and duty-free inflation compensation premium of 2,850 euros in October. For individual occupational groups, there would also be structural increases in the tariff tables after the term had expired. This would significantly increase your income.

The EVG originally started the negotiations with demands of at least 650 euros more per month or twelve percent for the upper income groups. The term should not be longer than twelve months.

How to proceed now

Around 110,000 EVG members employed by Deutsche Bahn are now voting in a ballot as to whether they will follow the recommendation of their board and accept the arbitrator’s proposal or not. Every member entitled to vote will receive a personalized letter with a QR code or link for online voting in the next few days. There will be no postal voting. The letters should all be delivered by August 11 at the latest. The members then have two weeks to cast their votes.

The EVG wants to present the result on August 28th. Usually union members vote in a ballot on indefinite strikes. Now they have to formally decide on the arbitration award. But a refusal would automatically mean a vote for industrial action without a time limit.

Bad mood in the union

The outcome of the ballot is open. The mood is reportedly divided, the members are said to be dissatisfied with the conduct of the negotiations. According to trade union circles, some large national associations have already expressed skepticism about the arbitration proposal. This is, at least in terms of increase and duration, significantly lower than what the union had once demanded.

Rejection would have far-reaching consequences

But the hurdles for a rejection are high: at least 75 percent of the participating members would have to vote against the arbitrator’s decision. Should that happen, the collective bargaining dispute would escalate completely. The passengers would then probably face a chaotic late summer and autumn with unlimited rail strikes. For the EVG negotiators, a refusal would also be a severe smack. For months they struggled to find a compromise and in the end came out clearly in favor of it. If the members do not follow them with a clear majority, the union would face a severe test. For further negotiations that would be extremely difficult conditions.