As of today, Sarah Jones is officially the President of the German Weather Service (DWD). The authority is not new territory for the 58-year-old German-British woman with a degree in physics and meteorology: she has been a member of the DWD board of directors since 2011 and is responsible for research and development.
Her areas of work included improving weather forecasting and the agency’s climate and environmental services. A topic that is still close to her heart – especially in view of the challenges posed by climate change. “It is very clear that we must do everything we can to respond appropriately to the influences and consequences of climate change,” says the new DWD boss.
“We need to further develop our various tools in such a way that we can make statements on a range of timescales from the short-term times for weather forecasts to the long-term times when we then notice climate change,” emphasizes Jones in an interview with the German press Agency. “And we also have to ensure that the information is communicated and made understandable so that it gets to where our customers and the general public need it.”
Combine weather and climate advice
The scientist, who has received awards in the past for her research on tropical cyclones, emphasizes that the challenges for the German Weather Service in connection with climate change are diverse.
On the one hand, the authority must provide information on how the effects on the future can be, for example when it comes to heat, drought and their consequences. “But we also need to be better able to provide up-to-date forecasts on this so that we can then issue warnings.”
Jones explains that weather and climate advice is increasingly being combined. “If I want to use a weather forecast for an extreme weather event correctly, I also have to have an understanding of the climate in which it is developing. And that is the future for us. That is weather and climate together.”
Weather warnings are becoming a tightrope walk
Because in connection with climate change and the global rise in temperature that has been observed since the beginning of the millennium, the probability of extreme weather events such as heavy rain, but also heat, is increasing. However, each weather event has its own special characteristics that affect the possibilities of forecasting.
A heavy rain event that includes a lot of thunderstorms only has very short time scales. In a heat wave, on the other hand, meteorologists speak of longer time scales from several days to weeks.
However, forecasts that are as precise as possible are one thing – translating warnings into on-site measures is another. The catastrophe in the Ahr Valley served as a wake-up call in this regard. “It’s important to issue a warning in a timely manner and to also provide the information: How certain is this information and what is the possible range of events?” says Jones, pointing out the difficult balancing act with the warning system:
“If you warn too much, you won’t be heard anymore.” Networking at various levels is also important, whether at the interface between federal and state governments or with local actors.
Portal on natural hazards in the making
But the warnings alone are not enough – the information must also be used along “a whole chain of decisions that have to be made”. This applies, for example, to civil protection as a key customer of the DWD. In addition, the DWD also relies on the free warning app “so that people in Germany are very well informed when a weather event with a high potential for damage is approaching”.
The DWD is currently in the process of developing a portal on natural hazards with other partners from the federal and state governments, says Jones about innovations in the authority. In this way, all relevant information for different types of natural hazards could be found online. “Weather and climate play a significant role in the majority of all natural hazards.”
The climate in Germany
The annual and climate balances of the DWD have been showing new temperature increases and records for years. The number of so-called tropical nights in large cities on the Rhine or in the Rhine-Main area has increased, as has the number of hot days with more than 30 degrees. Are heat waves the new normal in Germany?
“We definitely have to be prepared for the fact that heat waves will become more frequent and that dry periods will also increase with them,” says Jones. “That doesn’t mean it can’t be cold, but that the likelihood of a cold winter is lower. On average, there will be more heat waves and fewer cold winters.”
