Although the number of registrations of battery-powered vehicles (BEVs) in Germany has increased significantly in recent years, according to estimates, electromobility is not progressing fast enough. A current analysis by the Stuttgart research institute ZSW put the current stock at 1.9 million electric cars. “If Germany [..] wants to reach its self-imposed target of 15 million electric vehicles by the end of 2030, at least twice as many vehicles as in 2022 must be registered every year,” says Andreas Püttner from ZSW.
Also Prof. Stefan Bratzel, Director at the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach, does not see Germany on the right track to reach the goal. “The goal of 15 million pure electric cars by 20230 can only be achieved with Herculean efforts. Ten million BEVs are currently more realistic,” he told stern.
In a report that the ministries agreed, it was even assumed that there would be at most 8.2 million electric cars on German roads. The federal government’s climate target of 15 million electric cars by 2030 is actually intended to make a decisive contribution on the way to greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. However, the transport sector is now the biggest problem in achieving the goals, quoted the “Handelsblatt” in a print edition at the end of July.
According to the research team led by the Öko-Institut and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, which carried out the analysis for the report, one reason is the continuing supply of combustion vehicles. Only when new cars with petrol or diesel engines are taken off the market from 2035 after the EU decision will electrification pick up speed. That’s how Bratzel assesses it. He therefore demands: “The internal combustion engine must gradually become more expensive.” Because only if consumers saw a price advantage in electric cars compared to combustion engines would they also decide to buy an electric model.
In order for the expansion of electromobility in Germany to be more successful, a few things have to change. “Many more models at attractive prices” are required in the lower middle class and in the small car segment. In fact, according to a recent study by the management consultancy PwC Strategy, the prices for e-cars in Europe and Germany
“In the fight for market share, the car manufacturers are fighting a BEV discount battle that is now reaching Europe,” say the industry experts. Accordingly, the average discount for Stromer in the premium segment from June to July rose by a quarter to 14 percent. In the middle vehicle segment, the experts recorded an average discount of a third to 11 percent. In the volume market, for which there are the highest government purchase premiums, the average discount is “largely the same” at 9 to 10 percent. The German state pays the largest amount for electric vehicles with a net list price of less than 40,000 euros.
In contrast, Stromer built in Germany are around 40 percent more expensive than the same models that are built and sold in China, according to the results of the PwC study. The result: far more electric vehicles are sold in the People’s Republic than anywhere else in the world. According to ZSW, 53 percent of the 27.7 million electric vehicles worldwide are registered there. Ascending trend. According to Püttner, China has made it to the world’s largest electric car market with government support measures and the relatively low prices there.
“The costs of the entire value chain of the electric vehicle must be reduced,” demands Bratzel. This is how Tesla, for example, gained its competitive advantage. In fact, the US company is the only foreign electric car manufacturer in China that can still assert itself against strong domestic competition such as BYD, Saic or Geely.
In addition to the price reductions, which are important from an expert point of view, and the need to expand the range of electric models in the lower price categories, the charging ecosystem must be further developed, says the director of the CAM. On the one hand it is about fast charging and on the other hand bidirectional charging, the property of an electric vehicle to feed stored energy back into the power grid when required. “If there are 15 million BEVs in 2030, a huge storage capacity will be available. It has to be bidirectional so that we can use it to stabilize the grid.” That doesn’t exist in China yet. Basically, only a few electric cars have this function so far. Bratzel says: “We also have to get better for competitive reasons.” It is not enough to simply replace the combustion engine with an electric drive, “the entire system has to change”.
Germany is therefore far from being the market leader in electromobility, as is actually the plan. The goal of 15 million electric cars by 2030 is looking bad. In order to get as many BEVs on the road as possible in the next few years, a significant change in strategy is required. Bratzel summarizes: “Energy suppliers, charging network operators, car manufacturers must work together under state orchestration.”
Sources: Handelsblatt, with material from the dpa
