Heat waves in Spain and Italy, forest fires on the Greek holiday island of Rhodes: popular travel destinations in the Mediterranean are suffering from drought and high temperatures. Will holidaymakers be drawn to Sweden or Ireland in the future instead of the Mediterranean? The results of a survey indicate possible shifts. However, the industry cannot yet determine this in the bookings.
“There is currently no change in booking behavior due to the long-lasting heat wave in southern Europe,” says Norbert Fiebig, President of the German Travel Association DRV. For example, according to the Italian Tourist Office (Enit), holidays in the Mediterranean country are booming. Experts are expecting a record travel summer there.
In Spain, too, there is currently no evidence that tourists are turning their backs on the popular holiday destination because of the heat. According to the statistics agency INE, 37.5 million people from abroad visited the country in the first six months of the year – 23.7 percent more than in the same period last year.
“But one thing is clear: extreme weather events such as fires, droughts, but also floods et cetera will occur more frequently as a result of climate change,” says Fiebig. The off-season is likely to gain in importance. Travel companies are already reacting. For example, industry leader Tui recently extended the season in Greece, and the destination can now be booked until mid-November.
price beats heat
According to tourism researcher Torsten Kirstges from the Jade University in Wilhelmshaven, heat generally does not deter holidaymakers. Countries like Turkey, Greece or Tunisia and Morocco have been very popular in summer for decades, even though it’s always very warm there. “This also ensures that a summer holiday there is often cheaper than elsewhere. The rule is basically: price beats heat,” said Kirstges of “Wirtschaftswoche”.
However, a survey by the European Travel Commission (ETC), the umbrella organization of various European tourism organizations and authorities, indicated the first shifts. According to this, Spain is still at the top of the favor of people who want to travel from June to November. France, Italy, Greece and Croatia follow. However, of around 6,000 people surveyed across Europe, 10 percent fewer than last year are planning a trip to the Mediterranean. The Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland and Denmark, on the other hand, enjoyed growing popularity. ETC attributes this to travelers seeking less crowded places and milder temperatures.
North-South Pattern in Tourism Demand
“We expect that travel flows in Europe will be more affected by unpredictable weather conditions in the future,” says Eduardo Santander, ETC Executive Director. Travelers are more likely to avoid southern destinations during heat waves. “This could result in more Europeans gravitating to destinations in Central and Eastern Europe in search of milder temperatures in the summer months.” Southern destinations could then experience more travelers in spring and autumn.
A study by the EU Commission shows how travel behavior could change. “We see a clear north-south pattern in changes in tourism demand,” it says. With global warming of 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period, rather smaller shifts are expected. The situation is different with warming of 3 degrees and 4 degrees. The regions of central and northern Europe are expected to become attractive for tourist activities all year round, to the detriment of the southern and Mediterranean areas.
Wilhelmshaven as the new Caribbean
A general decline in demand for holidays in the Mediterranean region would not be good news for many travel companies. With millions of package tours, Spain and Co. are among the revenue generators. Scandinavia or countries in Eastern Europe are not yet large-scale package travel destinations. Many vacationers also organize trips to the Baltic Sea and North Sea themselves and travel by car or train.
Tourism expert Kirstges does not rule out that northern Europe as a travel destination could benefit from further hot summers. “Then Wilhelmshaven will become the new Caribbean and people will go to the German Baltic Sea, but also to Poland or northern France or Ireland, England, Scandinavia, Denmark.” But that only applies if it actually gets warmer there: “In my opinion, the sun’s warmth as a holiday motif will always remain the decisive factor.”
