A state-of-the-art forecasting model developed by researchers from the University of Liverpool’s Management School has ranked England as the second favorites to win Euro 2024, just behind their old rivals Germany. This cutting-edge model uses the latest machine learning technologies to predict match results based on the quality of individual players and how they are expected to perform together on the field.
After conducting 10,000 simulations, Professor Ian McHale, Dr. Benjamin Holmes, and Dr. Kamila Zychaluk have successfully predicted the outcomes of each match at the UEFA European Championship. According to their predictions, England has a 22% probability of lifting the Henri Delaunay Cup, making them the second favorites behind Germany.
The reigning champions, Italy, on the other hand, only have a 1% chance of winning the tournament, following their dramatic penalty shootout victory against England in 2021. The model suggests that the most likely final will be between Germany and England, with a 51% and 42% chance of reaching the showdown match respectively, surpassing teams like France, Portugal, and The Netherlands.
In addition to England, another home nation generating interest is Scotland, managed by Steve Clarke, who has a 59% chance of advancing to the knockout stages. Interestingly, rule changes from Euro 2016 now allow third-place teams to progress to the next round, which would mark a historic achievement for Scotland, given their previous failures to reach the knockouts in both Euro and World Cup appearances.
The forecasting model, which was published in the International Journal of Forecasting, continuously updates its predictions based on player performances and any changes in lineups throughout the tournament. Professor Ian McHale explains that the model considers the individual abilities of players, as well as how they interact with their teammates and opponents, resulting in more accurate forecasts compared to traditional bookmakers.
By utilizing advanced performance metrics at the player level and machine learning techniques, the model has proven to outperform the market in predicting match outcomes. As the Euro 2024 approaches, football fans can look forward to an exciting tournament with England and Germany emerging as the top contenders, according to the innovative forecasting model developed by the researchers at the University of Liverpool.
