Covid-19 has led to the most severe economic downturn in modern economic history. The bottom has been reached in the second quarter. With a view to the front, a return to the growth path starting in the summer of 2020, it is conceivable. The massive stimulus is likely to develop packages worldwide first additional thrust. Accordingly, we expect, for example, for 2021 plus sign, the to be significantly higher than usual. We look several years into the future, there are good reasons to be less optimistic.
Corona the recession: a Short, but fierce
The Corona-pandemic triggered a recession in the world economy compared to previous downturns exceptional. With four months, is extremely short – on average, the 19 recessions have lasted since 1900, about three-ten months. Here is the extensive government stimulus programs, which amounts to approx. seven to eight per cent of global GDP.
Despite this massive support packages, the Corona is a crisis so intense that the global economy will only recover in the course of the year in 2022 to pre-crisis levels. And: The long-term consequences will be felt far beyond the decay of Covid-19 and beyond. About the experts
Chris-Oliver Schickentanz Chief Investment Officer Commerzbank AG. As a guest columnist he writes in January 2013, at this point regularly for FOCUS Online.
episode #1: High debt
States and companies are in debt to the Corona is much higher. Many groups have had to take in spite of government assistance programs additional credit lines in order with the Corona-related negative consequences to be finished. This has increased the indebtedness of the corporate sector massively. At the same time, the debt ratio of the Public sector has increased dramatically. This limits the long-term Investment – for both the government as well as private companies. Starting in 2022, we therefore expect a decrease substantially in growth dynamics.
episode #2: Zombification
During the Covid-19-crisis countries and Central banks had to act quickly in order to keep the real economic damage of the lock downs as low as possible. This assistance has been awarded to such companies that had been in front of the Corona problem and not really a viable business model to have. Together with the aggressive measures taken by the Central banks, this can lead to a “Zombification”: Independent non-viable companies to be saved. Thus, a cleanup of the business landscape and competitive environment is prevented. A development that we knew so far, especially from China. As a result, the potential for growth decreases, because productivity and innovation suffer and not be sufficiently rewarded.
episode #3: De-globalization
Corona is likely to lead many companies to take a critical Review of global supply chains. Because were bottlenecks through local lock downs, many companies are forced, especially in the first weeks after the outbreak of the pandemic to stoppages of Production. We are not assuming that globalisation is reversed. But Covid-19 may, together with a stronger focus on national economic and customs policy, at least to a De – globalisation – this, too, with rather negative consequences for growth. Bernecker exchange – compass orientation for your Depot. Clear. Compact. Competent. (Partner offer) Now for 30 days completely free trial!
episode #4: digitization
A positive factor in the “After-Corona-world”: Many companies realized that business processes need to be consistently digitized. This provides the IT industry a welcome boom, but could in the long term, mitigate some of the negative consequences on the productivity and perhaps even completely offset. Thus, the digitization is a kind of “Joker”, which is contrary to the above negative factor. It is questionable currently, but, as the company determined its investment in IT can accelerate, given the high debt mountains.
The world keeps on turning
outside of Corona, the world continues to turn. We see the ongoing tensions between China and the United States as a structural load factor, the remains in the coming years, latent and occurs from time to time in the foreground. Also the risk of a hard Brexits the end of the year is not to be dismissed out of Hand and is another negative aspect.
Also interesting: Bernecker exchange – compass orientation for your Depot. Clear. Compact. Competent. (Partner offer) Now for 30 days completely free trial! financial professional Marc Friedrich: Corona-crisis is only the prelude to the great Crash of FOCUS Online Interview with best-selling author, financial professional Marc Friedrich: Corona was in crisis was only the prelude for the great Crash
