up to now, the Corona-crisis has not led to an increase in bankruptcies. But this could soon change, believe credit reform. It looks totally different in the case of consumer bankruptcies.
Düsseldorf (dpa) – Germany threatened according to the assessment of the economic credit reform credit reporting “a wave of insolvencies on an unprecedented scale” if the economy is recovering rapidly from the Corona-pandemic-induced slowdown.
According to many professionals there could be an increase in bankruptcies of up to 20 percent, said the managing Director of Creditreform, Volker Ulbricht, on Monday in Düsseldorf.
In the first half of the year 2020, the number of corporate insolvencies declined in the Federal Republic, despite the Corona, however, a surprisingly strong 8.2 percent to 8900 cases. The bankruptcy happen to have decoupled from the real economic Situation of enterprises, – said Ulbricht.
The reasons for this, particularly the multi-billion dollar state support measures for of Corona damaged the company and even more the suspension of the obligation to apply for Insolvency by the end of September were. The measures were apparently shot in their effect on the target, and also some companies would be going to the bankruptcy court saves that already existed before the crisis broke in jeopardy, the court of economic expert. The suspension of the obligation to apply for Insolvency is initially valid until the end of September, but can be for another half a year until the end of March is extended.
The wave of insolvencies has been postponed, but only stressed Ulbricht. The risk of a significant tightening of the bankruptcy action in the second half of the year and in the coming year increases.
The damage caused by the nearly 9000 business failure in the 1. Half of the year, Creditreform, estimated to be around 12 billion euros. In the case of the companies concerned and their environment around 125,000 jobs are threatened or have already disappeared. Confirmed the Trend of recent years, according to many bankruptcy candidates are older, already-established company. After all, nearly half of the bankruptcies in the first half of the year was accounted for by firms that were older than ten years.
Hardly an effect of the Corona-crisis credit reform, yet in the case of consumer bankruptcies. The number of private bankruptcies fell in the first six months of 6.4 percent to 30,800. Until the middle of March, the economic conditions for the consumer have been well – characterized by a stable labor market and low interest rates, – said Ulbricht.
had, in the Meantime figures, rising unemployment and a massive expansion of short work periods concentrated in the financial game of many consumers, although. However, it should also be expected in the second half of the year, no dramatic Change in the Situation in the case of consumer bankruptcies. Because it was a long ordeal, until an over-indebted consumers come actually to the bankruptcy process.
Ultimately, the future development in consumer insolvencies is dependent on whether it would be able to cope with the crisis on the labour market, with short-time work, or whether it come at the end but still a massive job cuts in Germany. “If we get a pronounced unemployment, will also increase the number of consumer insolvencies sooner or later,” said Ulbricht.
credit reform to insolvency proceedings in the 1. Half of the year, 2020
