The next big battle in Ukraine could be in the Black Sea. The Russian fleet prevents ports on the west coast of Ukraine from selling grain to the rest of the world. Reuters reported that the White House wanted to provide Ukraine with advanced missiles capable of sinking Russian ships.
Grain exports around the world are just a pretext. Thus, Ukraine accounts for only 8% of wheat exports in the world. Recent grain export restrictions from Russia, India and China are driving up the price of wheat far more than uncertainty over Ukrainian exports.
But never mind, who could blame the United States for seeking to break the Russian blockade to feed starving populations?
Neutralize the Russian fleet
The real objective of this possible delivery of state-of-the-art missiles seems more related to the hope of neutralizing the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. The Russian army could no longer use it to bomb Ukraine or to defend conquered territories, Crimea included.
However, the American authorities would be reluctant to provide this armament. Indeed, Ukrainian soldiers must be able to use it, which requires training. This sophisticated weaponry must not fall into the hands of the Russians either.
Give a hand
The delivery of this armament could also serve as a pretext for the Russian army to begin an escalation of the conflict. However, the Russian military is weakened and dysfunctional. The Kremlin should be very hesitant before venturing down this path, if it ever does.
The Russian army could therefore be forced to lift the blockade. In this case, Vladimir Putin could save face by invoking the risk of famine.
Would he? It is doubtful. Human lives don’t seem to matter much to him. He is no doubt hoping for a global wave of support due to possible food shortages.
He is wrong. He will be blamed for the shortages.
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