Specialists are desperately needed in the German trades. And despite the weakening economy and gloomy prospects for the economy as a whole, little is likely to change.
“The shortage of skilled workers in the skilled trades is at such a high level that a lot would have to happen before one could begin to think of a balanced market,” said Lydia Malin from the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne of the German Press Agency. At the moment she sees no danger that the development in the trade could be reversed. “The shortage of skilled workers will probably worsen due to demographic change alone and will be one of the major challenges of the next few years.”
Craft businesses are faced with rising costs for a variety of reasons. “On the one hand there is the lack of raw materials, which leads to rising prices,” said Malin. “On the other hand, the shortage of skilled workers means that companies sometimes have to pay more for staff.” This makes the trades more expensive for the end customer. “And of course there are those who can’t or don’t want to afford it anymore.” However, this is still the case to a small extent, so that one cannot speak of a turnaround.
Order books are still well filled
The electrical trade is even assuming that the shortage of skilled workers will worsen. According to the Central Association of German Electrical and Information Technology Trades (ZVEH), the decline in orders in the construction industry is making itself felt. “However, the economic situation of the electrical trades is very stable.” Photovoltaic systems, heat pumps and storage technologies experienced a boom in demand due to the rapidly increasing energy prices. “This is reflected in full order books.”
According to an economic survey from September, more than half (58 percent) of electrical trade companies have orders for more than two months. For almost a third (30.8 percent), the order books are full for more than four months in advance. However, many companies are unable to process orders as quickly as desired due to a lack of material.
Because the energy transition and increasing digitization are creating new areas of responsibility for the electrical trades, the electrical trades are not assuming there will be any relaxation: “The shortage of skilled workers will worsen.”
Painters and varnishers are also still very busy. “The order books are still full at the moment,” is the summary of the Federal Paint Design Building Protection Association. However, since the beginning of 2021, there have been sharp price increases for paints and varnishes or floor coverings, for example, as well as for fuel and energy. “It remains open how far and how long the skyrocketing price increases can be passed on to customers.”
More postponements and cancellations
Businesses increasingly reported order postponements and cancellations in both new construction and refurbishment. According to the association, the order lead time for painting and varnishing services increased by a further two weeks to an average of 14.3 weeks from spring 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 alone. In the years to come, there is no sign of an easing of the shortage of skilled workers in the painting, varnishing and vehicle varnishing trades.
The situation is similar in the plumbing and heating sector: “At the moment, companies are still feeling the consequences of delivery problems rather than customer reluctance,” said the spokesman for the Central Association for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning, Frank Ebisch. Heating products with high demand are particularly affected by delivery problems – such as heat pumps and boilers. The order books, on the other hand, are full.
“The demand for new heating technology is currently high,” said the spokesman. “This is of course driven by the rising energy prices and the climate policy decisions from Berlin.” 500,000 heat pumps alone should be installed every year by 2030. Ebisch’s conclusion: The need for skilled workers is a long-term problem in the industry.
